Welcome to a new week in the markets.
What’s on the agenda this week?
Our thoughts on The Funded Trader prop firm
Trade ideas for Euro ahead of US CPI
What does it really mean to be a fundamental trader
Whats going on with The Funded Trader?
Upon one glance at twitter, it’s clear TFT are refusing payouts based on nothing.
Excuse after excuse, and manual breaches to ensure no payouts are required.
The company have remained active on twitter ensuring their survival and success (said every sinking ship).
If you ask me, they're fighting a losing battle now as their reputation has been tarnished.
With so many funded options available, Im struggling to think why anyone would chose to even take the risk or passing, earning money then not receiving a payout.
My advice, chose another company with a better reputation such as Alpha capital, FTMO, Funding pips or The Funded Engineer.
What does it mean to be a fundamental trader?
Well, I have personally seen online traders claiming to be fundamental traders. So I would like to clear it what it actually means to be a fundamental trader.
Market participants who trade based on currencies fundamentals, are doing so based on economic data such as inflation, employment, GDP, debt etc.
Using economic models, we can determine if a currency is undervalued or overvalued and whether there are opportunities to exploit inefficiencies in pricing.
What we see online is those claiming to be fundamental traders who solely trade the reaction to the red folder news announcements. Let’s be clear. This is gambling. Here’s why:
Filling orders around these announcements is difficult as the market moves so fast, leaving you massively exposed to poor fills.
The market often whipsaw clearing out all stops - so even if the news is positive on the USD, it may sell off hard first tricking people into selling just to reverse. This makes it nearly impossible to control risk.
So for those social media trades who trade around these news announcements are not trading currencies based on fundamentals.
Real fundamental traders hold positions for months not minutes.
Because that’s how it takes for economic data to filter through an economy.
‘Oh but red folder news just provides the catalyst’, this simple isn’t true. It provides volatility for day traders.
Or do you think in split seconds billions of dollars are put on the table without calculating pricing, or a solid game plan for a specific economy?
I think not.
A look at the week ahead on EURO
Euro Futures (April expiry)
NFP caused a little push up on EURUSD Friday afternoon, albeit a mixed report. We have left behind a lot of liquidity that the market will likely come and collect over the next 48 hours, therefore for me, it’s far too early to be buying or continuing this upward pressure. I would consider taking intraday short positions until we have grabbed some liquidity.
The daily profile offers some hope for bears, as long as we hold below the high vol cluster, we may well see the short term bearish movement continue down below the NFP low from Friday.
Daily TPO
We have now filled single print from Friday morning session although there is not many great levels to consider on the AM profile. We should also consider the fact that AMT states after opening outside value from the previous session we should continue in that direction. However, given where the daily is currently sitting, I would remain with a bearish view short term as long as we hold the high.
AM TPO
EURUSD intraday idea
That’s a wrap for this week.
Thank you all for reading.
Aaron