Welcome to Lost In The Exchange - The essential FX newsletter to keep you informed and prepared for the week ahead.

In this weeks copy:

This past Friday we had Fed Chair Powell speaking at Jackson Hole, in which he confirmed the time has come for policy adjustments in the US. The fight against inflation is on the right path, however future adjustments will be dealt with as economic indicators are released.

As per the CME fed watch tool, the market has nearly fully priced in a September rate cut of just 0.25bp’s already, therefore Fridays announcement from Powell offered very little shock to the market, yet USD had weakened significantly anyway.

September’s meeting will give us the updated dot plot for upcoming rate cuts, putting DXY in a unique position for a rally throughout September if the Fed’s plan do not match the intended 100bp cut for 2024.

From a technical standpoint, we are approaching strong weekly support, with an over extension in many USD crosses.

I will be watching for a bounce from these levels above 100 at least in the short term, as the fundamental driven weakness seems rather exaggerated.

To stay informed with live updates, join our community where we will utilise TPO & futures data to find the highest probability setups.

For those that don’t know, VWAP = Volume weighted average price. It’s a dynamic tool that tracks whatever time frame you calibrate for.

In my custom chart book, I have renko candles (block out some of the noise) laid over the VWAP with +/-2 standard deviations on either side.

It gives such strong levels to play intraday bounces from, particularly in alignment with other tools.

Don’t take my word for it, have a look at this past week examples.

On days with steady trends we often see VWAP hold very well, especially in alignment with other levels. If you are looking for pullbacks, and you are not paying attention to VWAP, then you are making life hard for yourself.

I use this to find trading levels, I also pay attention to the profiles on the left where I have the cumulative delta profile laid over a volume profile; to ensure we can see where the market is not currently accepting or trading at high volumes.

My custom chart-book with 9 calibrated studies is available for sale below.

In the previous letters, I shared my thoughts about the upcoming rally on GBPUSD back above 1.3000 once again.

Now these targets have been smashed through, I will exercise caution going forward on longs as we remain largely over extended, and the DXY could give us a surprise bounce in September.

After breaking through weekly resistance, following on a strong bull run, we are now exposed to the possibility of a pullback before continuing upwards. Particularly given the outlook for the USD, I would consider current levels a good profit taking level in anticipation for deeper corrections.

I am excited to announce the launch in the coming weeks of The Traders Diary.

This is based and built on my own personal journalling, with my own personal macro biases, trade journal, clear prop firm management guide all built out via notion.

The sale copy will have up to date macro analysis on GBP, USD, JPY and EURO, also the most recent trades taken and given via my discord and journaled those missed opportunities for future references.

In my opinion, this is a complete template any trader needs to thrive.

Here is a sneak peak at the uncompleted template, however this will be available for pre launch at a discounted 25% off.

When this is finished and released next week, there will no be future discounts.

I strongly believe using templates like this helps keeps discipline and focus into what we as traders are looking for in the market, and identify errors and patterns along the way.

Learn more in detail and pre order now at this link: https://digieconomy.gumroad.com/l/gljsb

I estimate this full template will be completed within 14 days.

If you like this content and want to access live analysis and ideas - consider joining my new community where I intend to build a place scam free, full of real data driven decisions.

Here is the link where on the inside we have built a hybrid type of strategy that utilised fundamentals, candle sticks and futures data.

PS; I will not turn your $100 into $2million next month, I will leave that to signal providers.

Here are the tool I use to and funding companies I trust:

Futures charting software
Sierra charts
Live order routing is with Stage 5
Custom calibrated Futures charts

Personal Brokers:
IC markets
XM Markets


Funding
FTMO
E8 Funding


Have a great week everyone.