This is Lost in The Exchange - the only newsletter you need for an up to date version of events in FX markets.

In this weeks copy:

> CPI causes continued DXY weakness
> A take a look at FX markets for the week ahead
> Chart of the week
> A reminder about FX platforms

Post CPI, we got a slight drop once again in forecasted CPI, taking Y/Y CPI down to 3%, edging slightly further towards the Fed’s target of 2%

As a result, we saw a quick drop in the DXY which was expected, with little manipulation to offer up an entry. Weakness looks set to continue taking GBPUSD & EURUSD much higher in the coming weeks.

With this in mind, any short selling would be considered counter trend.

DXY it sitting at a make or break level for bulls, as 107 is looking less and less likely. Following this, CME’s Fedwatch has the market pricing in an 94% chance of a rate hike in September, putting continued pressure on USD.

I am looking at 2 scenarios here, either way it requires a break of 104 first which would lead to further upside in DXY crosses.

The fundamental highlights of the week are the European Central Bank on Thursday, and UK CPI on Wednesday.

With the ECB monetary policy statement and interest rate decision, as per June’s minutes, the market is not anticipating much change in the signalling nor the rate, therefore any volatility would be an opportunity to continue with the trend rather than expect a large market shock.

UK CPI y/y is predicted to continue falling short of the BOE's 2% target while remaining within the desired range. Given the presence of sticky wage growth and services inflation, the BOE remain vigilant around domestic pressures.

These will be the last figures the BOE will have before deciding whether to cut rates in August, the first time since before Covid. With the fear of cutting too soon, this week’s figures could act as a make or break for August rate decision.

Other ‘red folder’ data included Fed’s Powell speaking this afternoon however, similarly, unless he dramatically changes his tone around rate cuts, we can expect little shocks in the market. This comes shortly after manufacturing data, expecting a drop from last month’s reading, showing continued signs of improvement.

This week, I am looking at GBP closely ahead in alignment with the fundamentals above.

However, interestingly we have the BOJ showing they are still actually interested in the demise of JPY, with intervention coming in again last week. As such, we may have just reached a tipping point of JPY crosses, something I am watching close.

I believe the weekly timeframe on GBPJPY presents the opportunity of a bearish week ahead.

How far this might pullback first depends on time and price,However the bias from these levels given the macro background remains bearish, and any rally above the intraday swing high will be considered for shorts. Live analysis will be updated here: https://whop.com/cifer-strategies/

The Funded Engineer has ceased trading immediately, and rumoured to be filing for bankruptcy. It comes as no surprise given the recent history of these props collapsing. The question is, is there less money to be made for props than we think, or are they all just deliberately pulling the rug out from under their traders.

The rumours of bankruptcy would let the firm and the owners off the hook of their liabilities, which could be millions in payouts. We will likely uncover more on this in the coming days.

The moral of the story is, we may be coming to a period in time where only a few firms with have the monopoly in the this market, and the rest of the influencer run firms will be on their way out.

So who can you trust, well in my opinion there are only a few firms I would actually rest well knowing they will pay me, that is, in an industry as uncertain as this one.

Here are my recommendations:

> FTMO (if they fail then its game over)
> Alpha capital (Code: CIFER for 10% off)
> E8 Funding (another prop veteran who has withstood the test of time)

Final Note:

The cesspit of scams in this industry extends into shady brokers. If you go ahead with personal capital, these are the firms I currently use, or have used in the past with zero issues:

> IC Markets
> XM Markets
> IG Markets (used for share dealing & ISA’s too)


That’s all for this week’s copy.

If you want daily updates and live analysis more regular, consider joining our discord where we break down TPO profiles, macro economic and trading ideas.

https://whop.com/cifer-strategies/

Thank you for reading.