Welcome to the Lost in the Exchange - your most reliable source of real data driven decisions, and finally the truth in the FX space.

In todays copy:

DXY bulls look set to return in the short term as the FED’s message has been depicted by markets as ‘higher for longer’, keeping USD demand high.

This weeks PCE data (the FED’s preferred inflation metric) due on Friday will have the markets full attention this week, giving clues as to the FED’s next move.

Looking ahead at the DXY, we remain bullish unless something drastically changes. Fridays PCE data could give a boost to the greenback If it supports the Fed’s current narrative.

I believe the next move will set the tone for the following few months for USD crosses. The DXY is at a break or make point now, to remain bullish we will need to hold above 104, preferably 104.2, to see the bulls take control once again.

Alternatively, if we break down, DXY bears will send pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD much higher.

Last week we seen Gold dump from the highs at $2450, in pretty much a straight line, given little opportunity to jump in.

Over the weekend, further bombings in Rafah, and attempted strikes on Tel Aviv, appear to have had little impact on the safe haven precious metal. Typically, in times of such conflict, Gold would continue to rise, however the war between Israel and Palestine has been long lasting, perhaps the market gave up hope of a ceasefire.

With that in mind, Gold will likely continue its bearish momentum in the short term, down towards targets of $2273 initially.

A slightly deeper pull back would be welcomed providing a more favourable shorting opportunity.

As it stands - the market is still trading ‘low’ with nothing more than a brief distribution. Wednesday onwards this week we expect to see heightened volatility and some selling opportunities.

This section was ‘inspired’ by a post I seen on social media this week.

From a well known course seller offering a discount from £500 to £99 for his course. So whats the problem?

The issue is, £500 is ludacris in the first place as you can find all of these retail models free on Youtube.

The majority of trading gurus out here teach SMC or ICT. Or even worse, just trend lines and fibs. Either way, its not unique, its not their own, and therefore its a downright scam.

Secondly, he posted this offer as if he was helping those from ‘poorer’ countries. This really struck a nerve with me.

These people he was referring typically make a few dollars a day. Therefore £99 ‘special offer’ could be 2 weeks + work for some of these people, only to pay an online FX scammer offering free information that is literally plastered all over the internet.

Imagine I charged you £500 to search for something on Google.

I would go as far as to say probably only 1 or 2% or all FX related content or courses on social media is unique, with personal experience and strategies developed over time.

Everyone else is just selling the same garbage they didn’t even write or test.

The best piece of advice I can give you is to start off on Youtube. Learn how markets move, how price volume and liquidity is distributed and how macros feed into the charts.

After that, it’s a case of refining entries and risk.

I cant stress enough - do not buy an FX course unless it is related to volume profiles, footprints etc because this type of data and strategy is far more difficult to learn yourself.

Otherwise you are nearly guaranteed to get scammed for a course that won’t even work.

Other than the free route, joining some good Discord groups can be very beneficial, you can cancel anytime, you are not paying some guy in Dubai £2.5k for an SMC course, and if his strategies are not proven in real time, cancel it.

Done, that’s more valuable than the majority of these courses in itself.