Welcome to Lost In The Exchange, a weekly read in all matters FX. In this weeks copy

As summer draws to a close, we can expect some volatility to ramp up in key markets. In what has been a quiet August, rather quite choppy across major FX markets, we look at NFP followed by September’s US rate decision to see medium term targets on majors fulfilled.

Markets are bracing for Friday’s U.S. jobs report, with expectations centered on a modest payroll gain of roughly 65,000 to 80,000 and the unemployment rate hovering near 4.2 / 4.3%. This release comes at a critical moment: Powell’s Jackson Hole speech made clear that softening labor conditions are now central to the Fed’s policy calculus. A weaker than expected print would add weight to the case for a September rate cut, reinforcing the dovish tilt markets have already priced in. By contrast, a strong surprise would challenge that view, lift Treasury yields, bolster the dollar, and risk undoing the rally equities enjoyed after Jackson Hole.

For traders and investors, the NFP has become the decisive test of whether the Fed can deliver on easing expectations. Volatility around the release is likely, so it pays to tread carefully, avoiding oversized positions going into the print, keeping stop losses tight, and monitoring not just the headline number but also wages, unemployment, and revisions.

Taken together, the report will either confirm the market’s conviction that the Fed is ready to cut, or deliver a reality check that sticky labor strength could delay the easing cycle.

As mentored in previous copies, I remain firmly bearish on USD for the midterm, albeit cautious of any deeper pullbacks throughout September. As a result, favoured positioning Is bullish on major USD crosses.

GBPUSD

Looking at cable, higher time frames remain bullish, with weak USD fundamentals lending support to the idea.

I fully expect 1.3600 to be claimed again soon, with extensions to 1.3650 and 1.3800.

Assuming the most recent lows remain as a line in the sand, I will be searching for long entries on Monday morning upon the London open.

A high volume bear trap into some key support is the preferred entry criteria upon European opens.

With NFP lurking, and. consolidation building, the market could throw a curve ball on correlated markets. Particularly given the underlying bearish sentiment I maintain on XAUUSD for the month, these USD crosses are susceptible to a brief downside push.

XAUUSD

A strong close to Friday’s session took the precious metal into fresh 7 week highs at $3455.oz.

It is a difficult market to buy at this constant level of failure, with easy swing lows to be ran on the downside.

I would not suggest picking a top out of this just yet, however $3150 remains a key level that I fully expect to be hit during the second half of 2025.

Ideally, we will await daily confirmation of a flip and rejection from below $3500 before jumping into anything, with any long ideas being purely intraday scalps.

For any of our long term readers, you know we are fans of more professional trading tools, such as footprints, volume profiles and VWAP studies. In fact, in boggles our minds that more people are not using it. I suppose at first glance it looks more daunting, but in reality it gives an edge in the market that most could benefit from.

The biggest issue accessing these tools is, Sierra charts. As good as the software is for customising, it is also incredibly unfriendly on the interface, support and I still have never been to run it on a MacBook with consistent data streaming, windows software only - meaning of course I need to carry 2 laptops everywhere.

Therefore, I decided to try out Trading views advanced tools, with CME data (not spot market from OANDA) as the strategies I have developed are off the back of this data.

For this to run, you need a TradingView premium subscription in addition to the CME fees for data, I believe totalling around $75 monthly. However, unlike with Sierra, so far it appears I do not need an active routing account just to access the feed.

So in the coming weeks we I will personally play about with some of these tools and share any updates and opinions in coming copies (outside the weekly schedule).

Trading view is an incredibly easy to use tool, however I do fear that the lack of detail and options to go into depth with this type of analysis will have me back on Sierra charts before long. Time will tell.

That’s all for this weekend and hopefully some of these ideas are useful for the week ahead. Currently there is no active channel or community where updates on ideas are posted.

I will be sharing my thoughts are the market develops via twitter once again. https://x.com/AaronSwney

Look out for unscheduled updates during the week.

All the best.