Welcome to Lost In The Exchange - The only Fx newsletter you need to read to stay informed in the markets.

Quick note: I wanted to leave this week’s copy until today as we have a heavy week of data releases incoming. With CPI & FOMC, it seemed wise to let the market develop for a couple of days first.

In this weeks copy:

Coming into a big day of data (12th June), first up we have UK GDP, which is forecasted to unwind the gains made in last month’s rise to 0.4% m/m.
Quite frankly, I don’t expect this to hinder markets much ahead of the lunch time and evening data.

Next on the agenda is the US CPI report, which is widely regarded as the most significant announcement of the month. The last two months have shown relatively neutral readings, indicating to the markets that early rate cuts are unlikely. As CPI remains stable, the "higher for longer" narrative is expected to persist in the US.

The FOMC meeting later in the evening is expected to align with current market expectations without any surprises. However, traders will closely analyze Powell's language during the press conference for any hints about the Fed's next moves.

On Friday, there was a nearly 1000-pip drop from the morning highs, ending the week at $2287. This decline was driven by the People's Bank of China halting their purchases for the first time since October 2022.

So far this week the precious metal has began to regain some ground, up around 300pips from Friday lows. However the short term outlook still remains weak as it looks quite certain we have peaked for the time being.

Technically, the downturn continues with Gold looking extremely weak on the higher time frames. With all the news over the next 48 hours, it would come as no surprise to see the market dive into $2275 support, of course this will be dependent on CPI and Powells tone in this weeks meeting.

We will continue monitoring this market for potential shorting opportunities into the NY session. More on this in our discord here: linktr.ee/ciferstrategies

If you're with a prop firm that does not allow news trading, consider for a minute why?

Now, if you were to execute a trade 3 minutes before or after a high impact news release (includes orders triggered), this is typically a soft breach and the position will not be counted.

However, these rules don’t state that If your position takes a loss whether it will be counted or not (further investigation ongoing).

It only states that if your position is a winner, and opened within the few minutes prior to the news release that it will not be counted.

This is something worth keeping an eye on because the rules are always changing (always getting stricter), so depending on what firms you use, it’s important to note.

Take a look at this from the Funded Engineer.

It only states profits - what happens with losses?? I wonder?

I will find out. I will keep you informed on this,

The wording of their rules suggest its one sided to ensure you cant win, but you can lose.

Sounds like typical prop firm behaviour.

Thanks for reading this week’s copy. If you are interested in ongoing market commentary, check out our free trial at linktr.ee/ciferstrategies

It won't be running much longer.

Trade Safe.

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