Welcome to Lost In The Exchange - The essential FX newsletter to keep you informed and prepared for the week ahead.

In this weeks copy:

This came as quite a surprise as matter of fact, I personally expected to see a bit of a deeper pullback and not witness Gold break above $2400 so soon. My short bias was based upon it. It appears the bulls remain too strong.

But what is driving this?

Gold has always been driven by risk on sentiment, geopolitical tensions remain heightened regarding the war in the Middle East with no signs of a ceasefire agreement yet.

Additionally, expectations of the Fed's monetary easing have lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold. Despite reduced expectations for a rate cut in June, this hasn't dampened the enthusiasm of gold bulls..

Lastly, Central Banks have increased their gold inflows in Q1 of 2024, as China, Turkey and India diversify away from US dollar-based assets.

The trend remains too strong to give us a real discount entry, therefore the best strategy for traders is to utilise the strong momentum and buy out of LQ points.

As we approach all time highs, we will be watching the market closely this week and any data to follow for the possibility of this being a big double top. If it were to hold we could see Gold trade lower in the short term before ultimately continuing its bullish move.

Calling a trade at this time would be careless as we will await and see how the market develops. It will be a question of time and price, closely monitoring the market to see if it can go in search of value or LQ to fuel another move.

To stay informed live we are running a free trial into our community where we will utilise TPO & futures data to find the highest probability setups.

Dipping below internal support, cable has rebounded strongly as DXY weakens. My medium term bias remains bullish for the pair with any minor intraday dips being bought into.

This week we have GBP CPI y/y on Wednesday morning, which is forecast to drop quite significantly bringing the inflation rate in the UK back towards the BOE desired levels of around 2%.

The Bank of England’s forthcoming decision may hinge on this week's data, given the persistent wage growth which continues to drive inflationary pressures.

Increases above our current forecast will lead to weakness in the GBP (preferred scenario), as markets will anticipate rate cuts to be put pushed back from the BOE.

Interestingly - CME group data shows a large difference in the monthly GBP puts / calls spread. Bears are taking larger bets of a shock in CPI and delayed rate cuts.

For more detailed info on this click here and sign up for a free trial

If you are like me you have come across these signal providers online, offering the world all for FREE.

Sound too good to be true?….because it is.

Take this kid AndersTrading (quick google search required), he post every ad he makes from Dubai, in front of a supercar, inside a supercar or on a yacht.

It’s all fake. In fact I spotted this week different ads he is running from the back of a rolls Royce wearing the same shirt. Most likely a one day hire to make content.

Straight away I am not going to trust someone who does this.

So now let’s get onto his offer - a free signal group (much like Fredtrading) where you sign up and are swiftly passed onto his affiliate broker so he can get paid.

By this point you have deposited money via his affiliate deal, he has been paid and now you hope his information is not basic garbage available on babypipis.

Not only are the marketing tactics slimy and misleading, so are the income claims of making millions in a couple of years (maybe if you start with millions).

This type of crap is what gives our FX industry a scam vibe.

I wanted to take this opportunity to warn folk about how this business model really works - and the chances are you will get burned from these signals.

I am considering doing a YouTube series where I will test these groups out live, and see if they are even profitable.

The profitability is not the only concern here, it’s to my understanding that their affiliate brokers pay commissions on trades placed.

So you can imagine the conflict.

It’s in their best interest to give you trades to take even if they are good or not. You lose, they still get paid.

Try writing a bad review - they will have it removed (easy done on trust pilot)

I hope this reaches enough people that can understand this model and perhaps think twice before investing hard earned cash into it.

If you like this content and want to see more regular updates - consider joining my new community where I intend to build a place scam free, full of real data driven decisions.

Here is the link once again where on the inside we have built a hybrid type of strategy that utilised fundamentals, candle sticks and futures data.

FREE trial running so you have nothing to lose…..

PS; I will not turn your $100 into $2million next month, I will leave that to signal providers.

Have a great week everyone.