Welcome to Lost In The Exchange - The essential FX newsletter to keep you informed and prepared for the week ahead.

In this weeks copy:

Coming into CPI this Wednesday, DXY remains weak as capital continues to flee the greenback.

The market is fully expecting rate cuts to continue as planned as per the CME Fed watch tool, however inflation remains sticky particularly in services, justifying slight caution from the Fed.

Inflation is forecast to remain on its bearish trajectory at 2.9% Y/Y. On or below this forecast will have the smallest impact in markets, as it’s already priced in.

A miss, or higher than expected inflation will cause the largest shock to markets this week, as investors will once again become fearful of holding rates where they are.

GBP has underperformed against all major crosses in recent weeks. Riots in the streets is weighing on sterling as risk remains heightened. We have yet to see cable really maintain above 1.3000 and push on into weekly resistance levels. Personally I believe it is only a matter of time, and continue monitoring for a swing position to take hold.

Currently running in small profits from Fridays GBPUSD position, and holding 50%. Whether the bottom has already been formed remains to be seen. Easy LQ expected to be taken early in the week.

To stay informed with live updates, join our community where we will utilise TPO & futures data to find the highest probability setups.

For those who follow me on social media, or are part of my discord, you will know how I like to utilise real futures data in order to properly analyse the markets. Candlesticks are not enough, they really only do tell half the story.

The TPO charts that feature in our daily analysis offer clear insights not available via regular candlesticks.

TPO (time price opportunity) track the time the market remains at each given price level. In addition we have added volume profiles to track volume by price.

The calibration on our charts includes the first hour into the London session, therefore not only taking the Asia range into consideration, but also the European opens.

Not only this, the size of the IB can give us clues whether the market will break out of range for any give time period (used mainly on the Daily TPO)

For context, I have used the previous three trading days IB ranges (Wed, Thu, Fri). I have not cherry picked examples to suit by bias.

The green horizontal arrows represent the IB range which prints as the vertical blue line ( I added arrows for clarity), which was very well respected all three days and offered intraday positions.

Red arrows indicate the potential entries from outside the IB range and fading it back to the other side.

Looking at the previous few days, I have shared my thoughts on the IB range and potential signals.

Here there are two examples, both manually marked this time with red arrows. We can see in the first TPO the IB range is very small, spiking below it and providing the market with a hard rally ( a trade caught in the discord).

In the second example, the IB range is very wide, and subsequently we traded sideways all day, rotating back and forth within this range,

As I mentioned, the IB range gives us great lues into the theme of the day. I have just shown you the last weeks TPO’s and explained how I would look for entries, without considering anything else.

Not a selective example of a strategy working once.

If you want to learn more on this, check the links below. My custom chartbook is also available to buy.

Undoubtedly one of my favourite markets to trade, Gold has remained choppy on higher time frames in recent months. With some sharp intraday moves, it’s unclear whether we will break out to the upside into new ATH’s, or roll over and challenge some of the resting liquidity sitting below.

CPI will offer us some volatility and confirmation on the next move.

There has been little correlation recently with USD pairs and XAUUSD, however when trading around high impact news, we can expect this to return, especially around CPI.

The fundamental argument for Gold remains very bullish, the same one I have been preaching for weeks; however the market keeps failing to materialise and break into new highs once again.

As a result, we run the risk of a hard sell off back below $2350 in the first instance.

I will continue to monitor this daily however with an intraday view for now as the higher time frame biases lack clarity.

If you like this content and want to access live analysis and ideas - consider joining my new community where I intend to build a place scam free, full of real data driven decisions.

Here is the link where on the inside we have built a hybrid type of strategy that utilised fundamentals, candle sticks and futures data.

PS; I will not turn your $100 into $2million next month, I will leave that to signal providers.

Here are the tool I use to and funding companies I trust:

Futures charting software
Sierra charts
Live order routing is with Stage 5
Custom calibrated Futures charts

Personal Brokers:
IC markets
XM Markets


Funding
FTMO
Alpha capital (TEN for 10% off)
E8 Funding


Have a great week everyone.