Welcome to Lost In The Exchange, the most detailed transparent FX newsletter available today.

What to expect in the markets for the week ahead:

All eyes turn to Washington this week as the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday evening. Markets fully expect a 25bp rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate into the 3.75% to 4.00% range. The decision comes amid growing signs of a softening U.S. labor market and persistent inflation pressures. With several key data releases delayed by the government shutdown, policymakers face an unusually high degree of uncertainty. This environment underscores the Fed’s delicate balancing act between supporting growth and maintaining credibility on inflation.

For currency markets, the rate cut itself is largely priced in. The true catalyst will be chair Jerome Powell’s forward guidance and tone during the press conference. Clear guidance toward a longer easing path could weaken the dollar and strengthen gold. Conversely, a cautious or data dependent message may steady yields and lend the dollar renewed short term support. Volatility around the announcement is expected to remain elevated as traders reposition across the majors.

Ultimately, this week’s meeting is less about the size of the move and more about the message that follows. The market wants clarity on whether the Fed is embarking on a sustained easing path or simply executing a “one and done” adjustment. For FX desks, the tone of Powell’s comments will dictate the next directional impulse: dovish language favors a weaker dollar and firmer gold, while any hint of restraint could prompt a swift unwinding of short USD positions.

We already know the rate expectations are priced in, however the market remains vulnerable to manipulation and re balancing.

GBPUSD

From a technical standout, major USD crosses look posed to dive before any continued rally.

DXY has space to move higher this week into the key 100 level once again. Short term bursts could be short lived, but much will depend on Powell’s speech and the potential shocks to the market.

Downside targets: 1.3000, potentially extending to 1.2750.

EURUSD

Similarly on EURUSD, the market has largely been rangebound on the weekly time frame.

In line with the wider trend, downside moves are quite likely limited, however remain cautious to highly volatile moves this week.

Looking at the Daily there is room from a technical standpoint to clear some intraday highs to 1.1730 before any potential dips in the pair.

In addition to USD pairs, Gold is always on the radar.

Recent weeks have seen more volatility in Gold markets than I have ever seen. 2000 - 3000 pip days have become quite normal.

Technically, the market is set to run higher early in the week, however in alignment with USD strength, the possibility remains for another heavy dump on the precious metal over the proceeding weeks before potentially revisiting the interim highs.

Volatility is heightened therefore risk management remains top priority.

Downside targets if sentiment aligns; $4000.oz, $3940.oz.

Assuming short term highs remain in tact, bears have space to drive the market lower.

I want to touch on something within this FX space, in particular with CPA affiliate deals.

Just this week I spoke with several companies who reached out to pitch a partnership. Upon a deeper investigation, I discovered the ROI requirements that they operate under before paying their partners.

What this means in short, the majority of people need to lose money before the affiliates get paid.

If even 2 or 3 of your referrals make good profits and withdraw, the P&L impacts the net deposits your referrals put forward, disqualifying you from earning commissions for all of your referrals.

In other words, this is a scheme built for people to lose money. Brokers make money, affiliates make money, but the customer loses over and over again.

All of the telegram groups pushing these free channels for broker sign ups, driven by fake marketings and demo accounts, just know they are funded off the back of you losing money.

If you make money and withdraw, they don’t get paid.

No more rented supercars.

That’s all for this weekend and hopefully some of these ideas are useful for the week ahead.

I am happy to announce we have relaunched the discord community

The channel will be filled with free content and trade ideas.

We started this channel last year in a bid to clean this industry up, and provide people with a deeper understanding of financial markets.

I will be sharing my thoughts are the market develops via twitter once again. https://x.com/AaronSwney

Look out for unscheduled updates during the week.

All the best.