Welcome to Lost In The Exchange - The essential FX newsletter to keep you informed and prepared for the week ahead.

Sterling is under notable pressure ahead of the UK’s Autumn Budget. Weak retail sales and soft PMI data have already weighed on markets, and extended concerns the Budget may lean fiscally conservative given the UK’s fragile growth and borrowing outlook. GBP/USD trades close to 1.30, and any disappointing fiscal or growth projections could trigger further downside. Volatility around the Budget is expected to be high, with investor confidence sensitive to the government’s policy direction.

The Australian Dollar has had a tough week, with global risk appetite continuing to slip. Even though Australia’s latest PMI figures show a bit of improvement, the lift hasn’t been strong enough to counter broader risk off market moves or a still firm US Dollar. The RBA is sticking to a steady ‘wait and see’ approach, which isn’t offering much in the way of fresh support. With AUD/USD lingering just above the 0.64 area, the currency remains exposed to further weakness unless market sentiment turns around or demand for key commodities picks up.

Gold, meanwhile, is catching its breath following a strong run earlier in the month. Investors are weighing ongoing geopolitical tensions against the backdrop of firmer US yields, leaving the metal in a holding pattern for now. The metal remains highly reactive to any shift in US inflation data, Fed guidance or movements in the Dollar. A meaningful drop in yields or softer USD could once again trigger upside momentum, but for now gold appears stuck near the upper end of its range.

GBPUSD Outlook:

The paid has broken down through major support from this topping pattern, and with further advances expected on the DXY, I see an extended move lower on cable down through 1.3000 and towards 1.2850 in extension.

AUDUSD technical outlook

From a broader technical perspective the market is a clear structural trend, breaking lows and retesting once again. Two scenarios are at play here, with the potential of a deeper pullback before USD bulls drive this lower once more, additionally the market just rolls over from current pricing at 0.6450, with targets at 0.6400 and 0.6300 in extension.

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Have a great week everyone.

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