This is Lost In The Exchange - An FX newsletter keeping you informed with the most important topics and trade ideas.

In todays copy:

As summer arrives, FX markets are clearly not moving with the same volatility as in other seasons. Trading in low volume environments can be frustrating as price targets are rarely met, or liquidity points are left alone.

We witness less obvious opportunities to find positions and find ourselves stuck in ranging markets for longer.

Many traders just trade less, this is one way to conquer it.

Others still trade, however focus on intraday positions as the long swings could be frustrating to hold.

Either way, we could expect this to last until September again, that’s not to say there won’t be high volume days, but there are much more boring days in the markets during these months.

CPI seems to have replaced NFP as the highlight of the month. Attracting more volatile in the last 12 -18 months as now we are stressing the importance of inflation, trying to predict the Fed’s next move.

Currently the FED watch tool has the market pricing a 73% chance of a September rate cut. Due to softening inflation data, Powell seems to be taking a slightly more dovish tone therefore we would expect at least this. It would come as quite a shock really if cuts come as early as July.

With CPI this week, we will consider both alternatives, as we never really know which way the coin will fall.

Another forecasted drop this month, however if we come in below forecast, markets will bet on rate cuts in September as a guarantee, if not even July. I suppose it depends how low we go. In this scenario, we expect USD weakness and strength in Gold.

Alternatively, if we miss, and move further away from the Fed’s preferred target, Gold bears and USD bulls will take control of the market.

For live insights how we are trading these events, check out our community here

https://whop.com/cifer-strategies/

Le Pen’s Far right were clear leaders after the first round of polls, therefore a last minute coalition was needed from the left to maintain control of government.

EURUSD gapped down around 40pips following this news as it came as a shock to markets.

We have since filled the gap with very low volatility however.

Trade Idea on EURO.

Futures TPO levels show clear resistance above the LQ points to the upside.

We may not revisit here until CPI release which would provide an excellent short opportunity (data dependant)

If we can get a flip into sellers once we reach these levels, I will be very interested in taking shorts from this zone.

Time and price is key here - in order to take a swing position in a low volume environment, we need session timing to support the idea, reducing the possibility of false signals.

To remain up to date with our ideas consider joining our community.

https://whop.com/cifer-strategies/

That’s all for this week.

Final Note:
If you are looking for funding remember to do you research. The industry is rife with scams.

Here is my top 3 firms:

FTMO
AlphaCapital
E8 Funding

Trade Safe.


Aaron
Founder & Analyst
CIFER Strategies