This is Lost In The Exchange, an FX newsletter bringing you some harsh truths and systematic analysis in the FX markets.

In todays letter:

You might know what I am about to say with regards to the social media ‘furus’. But il go ahead anyway.

It's no secret that the quickest way to make online money is in course sales and digital products and this has caught on in every industry.

In the FX space, it comes in the form of flashy reels. Sell the dream and people will fear missing out.

But it’s all smoke and mirrors, and if you look closely enough you can see the money comes from rubbish signals and even worse courses.

The funny thing is, the failure rates are so high in the FX industry yet all these furus are claiming to have huge communities all making money? Something doesn’t add up.

No problem - keep reading and you will find out.

First thing to know Is that courses and groups are quite often a way to fake FX profits. Many ‘coaches’ fund their losing accounts with group sales.

Their adverts usually scream scam - like claiming to make 300% return a month. Or making you feel like you're missing something if you don’t make 5 figures a month.

The reality is most people lose in this industry. So how can it be?

Secondly, their ‘analysis’ is just basic candlesticks and trend lines, stuff you can learn in 2 seconds on YouTube.

Thirdly, they promote affiliate programmes, brokers, funding platforms, courses, groups, etc etc. This is how they really make their money, by praying on people who don’t know any better.

So what should you do to improve or learn?

Well, Youtube is a fantastic tool for learning, there is so much in depth information on there that you can learn everything you need to without paying for expensive courses.

If your still struggling to find consistency then be sure to journal everything your doing until you have refined your strategy. It’s best to trade with some form of systematic checklist rather than taking a long term forecast and random entries.

This will ensure you keep your emotions in check.

For the first two months of 2024, we have been largely stuck in a range without any real pushed in either direction.

What his has done is build up liquidity in the market, setting it up for a grab.

We can see below 1.2500 looks super clean and untouched, given way to the strong possibility of a breakdown, trapping in sellers.

That’s not to say that it won’t continue lower, however before any major push higher the market likes to set a trap to provide liquidity to fuel longs.

With that being said my bias remains bearish in the short term until we have swept this area below 1.2500, only then will I consider the possibility of the trend continuing back towards 1.3000 and beyond.

The trade idea looks the same as last week as we await the price action we have been looking for.

Since we are sitting on our hands on cable, let’s take a look at something a little more interesting.

After CPI last week gold has managed to recover all of the rapid losses and is once again trading around $2035.oz.

On our candlestick chart we can see the important supply zone we are running into. We have ran liquidity (golds favourite play) and could now be ready to continue the downward move sub $2000 once again.

Let’s look a little deeper into the futures market.

We can see the importance of the current level in both the weekly and daily TPO’s.

If sellers can hold around the Friday afternoon highs, the possibility of another 150pip move higher is highly probable.

We have spiked into key POC’s on both timeframes and any short bias will be based on this holding coming into the start of the week.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not considered personal investment advice. Always do your own research.