This is Lost in the Exchange - the only FX newsletter you need to read in order to digest all the chaos of the markets into a clear understanding of how to move forward.

In this weeks copy:

Ahead of Thursday BOE meeting, cable took a turn lower clearing out liquidity in and around 1.2470 area, as mentioned in our live trade ideas.

Therefore it comes as no surprise the market reacted out of this zone given the neutral tone of the BOE, not really hinting at much for traders to work off.

I presume traders wanted dovish confirmation of potential rate hikes coming faster than expected, which was not delivered.

GDP in the UK came in beating expectations on Friday morning taking the UK officially out of recession. However, the economy is far from efficient and inflation remains sticky and wage growth slow.

Much of the attention on cable will now be turned to CPI coming in the week ahead. See below for some ideas on how to take advantage.

Much has been said about prop firms in recent times, much of which I probably agree with. Incase you have missed it, here are my thoughts and you can take advantage of them , not the other way around.

Yes, prop firms operate like casinos. They take from the losers and give to the winners. Like casinos, they have rules and deceitful tricks up their sleeves to ensure you lose.

The reality is most people blow accounts, or never even reach payout In the first place.

So how can you be one of the winners?

First, derive a solid strategy. One that you have backtested and know it holds. Long term biases may not serve you will in the prop firm space with only some them allowing long term positioning and hedging.

Therefore your focus should be short term intraday positions.

Secondly, be aware of each rules. If you are managing more than one account, I would not recommend connecting them to a copier for a few reasons. One being you are doubling down your risk and exposing all access to capital on the same positions. If you have funding with different companies, hedge them against each other so you still come up with a win at the end of the day.

Lastly, chose a good firm. My recommendations are

FTMO, Alpha Capital Group (Code: TEN for 10% off), Funding pips, E8Funding

These companies I have never had issues with or ever read much negativity around (hard to do in this prop space).

You can sleep better at night knowing you will actually get paid by these guys. There slippage are better than others (still worse than live accounts) but among the best in the space.

I have a specific free channel for this in my group where we discuss strategies and reputation in more detail.

https://whop.com/cifer-strategies?pass=prod_5eOH9Vv0b7BH1

Heavy week of US data. CPI and PPI data will likely set the tone for the coming weeks in DXY and Gold.

Just today we have seen the average price series of coffee has been discontinued from inflation data, a very peculiar move ahead of this week’s CPI figures on Wednesday. Upon closer investigation, we can see the price of coffee beans has risen nearly 80% this year, perhaps why Starbucks profits have taken a dive also.

But does this confirm the BLS actually manipulate inflation data? There is no inflation if you just remove the highest rising commodities right?

Anyway - this has now opened by eyes to the possibility of a large spike in the data (maybe reading too much into it).

I remain open the idea that Aprils low could well indeed be the low of 2024, and therefore quite some time. If this were to break down we could be ready for a new bull run of cable, as USD rolls over.

With the situation in global economies, medium to short term predictions are best taken with a pinch of salt.

With that being said - I will be considering long positions on cable into mid week. With footprint stacked imbalances, the market could quite possibly run lower first taken all LQ before continuing higher mid week. Something on the watchlist, as much will depend on how we react early the week in anticipation for CPI.

This will be highly anticipated as a positive reading would give us a a third CPI Y/Y consecutive increases - something that is a cause for concern and has the potential to push rate cuts back to next year (good news for DXY bulls).

This is the scenario which will send DXY crosses and Gold bearish.

The story of EURUSD is not as clear, having been ranging for over a year. Intraday moves are favoured here in correlation of what setups we see in the pound and DXY.

Something to take note of is that we have broken back above the 1.0725 key level which has been a strong level over the last 12 months. Something DXY bears may take note of how the market starts the week to see what weak hands get squeezed first.

If you are looking for more detailed analysis and how to find entries, we have a free trial inside the community

https://whop.com/cifer-strategies?pass=prod_5eOH9Vv0b7BH1

Recently I have seen more and more signal group providers appear on my social feeds all operating with the same business model.

A free signal group however you must sign up using their affiliate brokerage, normally Vantage FX.

The issue I have with this is their ad creatives are ALWAYS in Dubai, in a rented car with some garbage UGC creators making their testimonials. They are not genuine traders, but rather slick marketers.

They fund this lifestyle with the commission they get from you opening accounts with their partners. They then continue to get paid commission the longer you stay and the more you trade.

This creates a conflict. Because now they are filling their chats with signals in volume to get as much commission as possible - irrespective of whether it’s a good setup or not.

Whilst the entire time selling a story that they made their money in the markets. Often with claims of being multimillionaires from trading.

Now let’s think for a second if that were true - and they really could generate 100% per month. They could just take all those millions they supposedly made in the market and turn it into billions within 12months.

Or - set up a crap telegram group and spend a fortune of fake lifestyle creatives and FB ads to drive traffic and pick up broker commissions.

What do you think?

Anyway - just a word of warning how they make their money and what you can actually expect in return.